$PAC Market Update June 6, 2018

The digital asset market rose slightly on volume that was slightly below the thirty day average, as consolidation continued.  The low print for the total market capitalization was 304 billion dollars, last Tuesday, May 29th, and the high of 353 bb traded on Sunday June 3rd, and the market currently sits near the high end of last weeks range with a valuation of 347 billion US Dollars.

Key support will be right above the 300 bb mark, while resistance will most likely be encountered at 395 billion and then 445 billion.

The major support is the three month low price which is also the low print for the year which is 250 billion dollars and the major resistance will be 465 billion as many traders and investors seemingly take losses and are willing to exit when their trades are back to break even.

Other numbers I follow are the quantity of cryptocurrency project valued at one billion dollars or higher as well as what valuation is needed to join the top one hundred list.  Currently, there are 23 projects with valuations greater than one billion US Dollars and the market cap required to join the top 100 list is 140 million dollars.

The five most valuable coins have a total valuation of 238 billion and account for 69% of the total market.

As expected in a slight increase in the price of all digital commodities, Bitcoin Dominance decreased by a few percentage points and is now 37.5%.  As I have noted in many of the previous market updates, BTC market share will need to decrease below the all time low of 32.7% for the market to break to new multi month highs.  The intriguing fact regarding the BTC dominance is how the largest coin in the space is less than is much closer to the all-time lows while the market as a whole is still quite far from it’s all time highs.  My estimate is that BTC dominance will move to all time lows when the market valuation increases above the 465-billion-dollar mark.

Ten Day Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap

Multi Month Cryptocurrency Market Cap

The market has been trading in a fairly tight range for almost a month, a break from this range for a time period greater than 48 hour will most likely be new direction of the next larger scale movement.

The story I followed this past week was the end of the 1000:1 redemption window for PAC owners to move to $pac. I was watching price movement and volume and tend to look for logarithmic movements, and we saw them last week.  As I mentioned in last weeks market update, assets with low per unit cost and light volume tend to have log moves in which the asset moves in 100% intervals to the upside and 50% intervals to the downside.

Over the past few weeks, the $pac currency traded yearly lows in all pairs on extremely low volume.

BTC low = .00000045

LTC Low = .00002800

DOGE Low = .94

Tether Low = .0033

As the lows traded in the two weeks prior to this writing, I look at the volume as well.  It was anemic to say the least.  Three days in late May volume was below $30,000 per day and the third it was barely over 30k.  price extremes on subpar volume tend to be opportunities, whether they are low or high price points.

Note that yesterday each of the pairings had a one log move to the upside.

The high prices were almost exactly all one log moves to the tick.

BTC high = .00000090

LTC high = .00005555

DOGE High = 1.89

Tether High = .00678

Was this coincidence.  In my opinion, it is not, as strong moves tend to happen across all pairs, not just a one-off trade.  Based on my study of logarithmic moves, the next levels of interest are 2x the current prices, and the recent lows.  Based on the system I have used for decades; one of those two outcomes have the strongest probability.  Each investor and trader have their own opinion, and this is simply mine.  That said, after a one log move assets that consolidate for a period before confirming or rejecting such move tend to have longer staying power.

$pac one-month chart with log interval

That’s said, the price is back to its multi month trading range, with the aforementioned low price looking more like a tail event as one only had small window of time to purchase at those levels.

Over the past three days the volume also had one log moves row days in a row, to help confirm the price action.  If volume increase at a higher rate than price, that is the sign of a sustainable price change, whereas, low volume price surges are short lived.

$pac volume moved from 75k to 150k, then from 150k to 300k.  If the volume increased by the exact same log percentage as the price, that means that the actual trading volume was the same, and the higher price accounted for the increase in dollar weighted volume, but that was not the case.  Volume was far stronger, so in my opinion, $pac has moves back to the prior multi month price range of .004 to .008.

The next area of resistance will come near 1.3 cents.  This level represents a three-month high and it also is approximately a one log increase in price from the highs traded yesterday.

To re-emphasize my point mentioned in prior writing, log movements have helped me looking at longer term positions.  Price action is dictated by every single person in the market.  Especially in low per unit cryptocurrencies.  These movements happen on both increases and decreases.

One may also simply look at the market cap and make a comparison vs other digital assets in a more general manner.

This Post Has One Comment

  1. Great read very informative! Good work guys

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