Dare I say it was a quiet week in the cryptocurrency market ? From a macro standpoint, last week total market valuation was 274 billion dollars. As of this writing the total market cap was 267 billion dollars. So all said, the digital asset market shedding a couple percentage points is fairly quiet based on historical volatilities.
Two standouts this week in the digital world were Verge (up 65% in the past week,) and Ontology (up 95% in the past week.) With these moves they both are now in the top 25 digital currencies.
The digital commodity market is in consolidation mode trading between the 245 billion mark and the 285 billion mark. In prior updates I have noted the 270-300 area is a long term support/resistance area, so for bulls, regaining the upper end of that range is of the utmost importance.
One very bullish sign is the market staying rather stagnant over the past week, but Bitcoin market share showed a decrease of more than one full point moving down from 45.6 to 44.4. I have noted many times that for a sustained market rally, Bitcoin dominance needs to decrease significantly as other assets begin attracting those investment dollars and more modern currencies begin to take the forefront.
As for other assets classes. US Equities are in the one step forward, two steps back mode, but those who were the last in seem to refuse to admit they are on the wrong side. The NASDAQ was front and center and the clear leader on the way up and it has been hit the hardest in the recent month, if the president of the US calls out AMZN, I would imagine more people would listen, but the majority of funds are algo driven, so they will ride it all the way down. AMZN is the classic case of the rich getting richer at the expense of those with less capital. AMZN pays the US Government pennies on the dollar for the US Postal Service, while the government takes the loss, AMZN shareholders gain and the taxpayers end up paying the difference. Since the Washington Post is owned by Mr Bezos and crew, and President Trump and the post are not on the best terms, I would imagine that the $1600 level in AMZN will not be challenged in a very long time.
That said, is AAPL, GOOG, FB and AMZN are the market, then the market has made a decade high and will continue to go much lower.
Since equities have come off a fair amount in the past month, the record fixed income shorts have not made any money on their bets either. With funds still long tremendous amounts of Equities and short fixed income, it’s a safe bet to say SP and NAS will be lower in the future and fixed income will move higher hence lowering rates.
Crude Oil (West Texas) has been trading between $60 and $67 more than 95% of the trading days this year and is dead smack in the middle of the range right now at $64 per barrel.
Gold has been consolidating this year as well staying above $1,310 and below $1,380 the entire year, and it too sits near the middle of its range at $1,340. Precious metals have been fairly quiet for years now. The Gold range has been tightening to a point where option volatility is beyond extremely cheap, a sharp move will be coming before the month of April ends.
Last but now least US Tax day coming up this weekend, markets have historically shown heightened volatility in asset classes that have experienced significant gains or losses in the prior year.