November 12, 2018   Market Commentary

November 12, 2018 Market Commentary

The past week, as well as the past month has been a consolidation period for multiple asset classes including US Equity and the CMC Blockchain index.  One index that stands out and is nearing recent highs is the US Dollar Index.  Assets priced in dollars are becoming more expensive while the majority of world currencies are weakening, thus making items more expensive outside of the US.

Digital assets in whole have held up relatively well trading, in a tight range over the past thirty days with support at the 200 billion mark while resistance comes at the 220 billion valuation.

 

US Dollar Index Futures

 

NASDAQ 100 Futures

 

CMC Blockchain Index

 

EEM  (Emerging Markets ETF)

 

Global equities remain under some pressure, but are still well within their 30 day ranges.

 

During the past month, capital allocations have been shifting from project to project within  the digital asset space.  Major moves have been occurring, primarily from smaller cap and mid cap to the mega cap projects.  Bitcoin’s total share of the market has been in a tight range with lows at the 51% level and highs at 54%.  Both of these numbers are still extremely high compared to other asset classes.  BTC Dominance will need to decrease significantly for a broad based rally to occur.  Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, and Ripple are among those who have  gained market share over this time period.

 

ETH

 

XRP

 

BCH

 

All three of the projects above experienced major capital inflows on November 5th.

 

With the total digital asset market cap unchanged and Bitcoin’s market share remaining in a tight range, I looked for well know coins that have experienced outflows.  LTC, DOGE, and $PAC  have had capital reductions as investors move funds from these projects to the mega caps.  I have mentioned before that I look at DOGE as a proxy for many of the smaller cap and smaller denomination coins.

 

LTC

Litecoin is down slightly over the past month but is still within  the 30 day range

 

DOGE

 

$PAC

The PAC and DOGE charts have similar shapes, and the spike in $PAC price in late October shown in the chart appears to be inaccurate.

 

 

Digital assets have fared well as a whole over the past month, but I would like to see some of the capital flows move into mid cap and small cap projects to confirm that a trend reversal from Bear market to Bull market is beginning.

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