Since my last writing, the digital asset market started off very quietly with very little volume and almost no price change in the middle of last week and into the weekend, then as Saturday came, cryptocurrencies experienced some significant selling pressure. Volume was light in the middle of last week averaging less than 15bb per day, Wednesday through Saturday. Saturday and Sunday volume increased to nearly 20bb per day as investors exited the markets.
Earlier today, the digital commodity total market cap printed 265 billion which was a 60-day low. The major support is in this band, which ranges from 245bb to 267bb total market capitalization number.
As noted in the prior updates, when the market decreases in value, BTC dominance increases. This number rose 2.2 points this week and is currently 39.7.
If the today’s low does hold and the market has a recovery, then it will solidify my theory that we are in a major consolidation and are at the low end of the range. With Key support being the 250bb level, the 350bb will now be the pivot area, and the high band of upper resistance will be the 450bb area.
The red lines indicate the trading band which the market is currently priced within.
The story of the day and of the last few weeks that I have followed was that of the $pac price and volume. During the last week of May, the redemption was coming to a close, and the prices were new lows each day since $pac was issued. It seemed as if everyday I looked the price was down and the volume was even lower than the prior day. Then the redemption ended and the broader market started to move sideways and then lower, and my thought was are owners of $pac really giving up? I hoped not, after all I have written a piece for the $pac team since inception.
As redemption ended, the price started to not move lower and volume started to increase slightly, then the $pac team announced that some “C” level silicon valley guys may be elected to the advisory board and that $pac was added to a top 20 exchange. I was impressed, good fundamental news in a market which rarely has any fundamental news what so ever. Now fast forward to the last couple days, $pac has made some significant steps in price in all of the major trading pairs.
Recall how over the past few market updates I have mentioned log chart and log moves ? If not, in the simplest terms, log move are in intervals of 2x. IE, one log move price either doubles or gets cut in half.
From the lows made in the past month, $pac touched all of its one log up intervals and subsequently was sold off in harsh fashion very quickly. Low and behold savvy investors have purchased and now the one log moves off log the lows have all been cleared with the exception of tether which needs to trade above .0066
Tether is the most important in my opinion, as dollars are a constant in this current world whereas the other cryptocurrencies have there own price volatility.
The Dollar price in $pac, no pun intended is even more BTC dominated than in the broader market. Since coinmarketcap seems to be what many reference, and the $pac volume over the past 30 days more than 72% in the Bitcoin paring, then with BTC nearing multi month lows that will be the toughest to overtake. But, with all of the FUD that has been thrown at this project, I believe it is possible.
What is most impressive in the $pac price and volume action over the past two weeks, is the breakout to the upside in the BTC, LTC and DOGE pairings. On a day where the entire cryptocurrency market was under serious pressure trading 60 day lows, investors sold out of some of the bigger names to move to the $pac project. Through my experience, assets that are strong in weak markets are worth watching.
I am a strong believer in the logarithmic price movements, we can look at the $pac-btc pairing. Moved from 45 to 95 in fairly short order. Based on log theory the next target for bears would be around the 50 area, but wait, someone tried to take it down to 50 a couple days ago and it then bounced to new highs within a few days, so that was the retest and the bullish confirmation.
Now for bulls, the next levels of interest will be near between 178 and 202 in Bitcoin Satoshi terms.
$pac since late May 2017
Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap since Late May